It’s a new year, welcome to 2015. We’re going to be seeing a lot more USD strength in the coming months as the US economy begins fire up again. I’m hoping to see something along the lines of a massive infrastructure program to help get long term unemployed back into the work force either through direct construction or small business support.
Once again, the Euro is in trouble with the Greeks talking of pulling out of the union and deflation rearing it’s ugly head in a big way. But, Draghi is heading to Germany on 14 January to get support for Eurozone stimulus. If he is successful, look for a reversal on the Euro as short cover and book profits.
EUR/USD D1 Chart
The Euro has two gaps that should be filled sometime in the near future. There looks to be possibility of a Gap play up to either 1.2100 or the 50% fib retrace level as shown on the chart below. You can see that the Euro has touched lows not seen in 3-1/2 and 10-1/2 years. The chatter about town is that there is still further for it to fall. I think it comes down to how much, if any, the EU wants to push another round of QE.
GBP/USD D1 Chart
The Brits are being dragged down by the Euro due it’s close proximity. I’ll be waiting for a signal for another leg down. Not enough info to know whether it’s going to range about for a while.
AUD/USD D1 Chart
The Aussie managed a double bottom last week which means there may be more upside and a possible breakout of the current range.
EUR/JPY D1 Chart
EUR/JPY looks like it has more room to go lower. It put in a nice pin bar yesterday at the round number with plenty of air below.
In The News
ECB’s Debate on Stimulus Intensifies (Bloomberg)
Pound Approaches 18-Month Low Amid Slowing-Inflation Speculation (Bloomberg)
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