Weekend Analysis – 04.18.2015

By April 18, 2015Analysis

Aloha traders! It looks like we have a new theme developing this week in the markets. What we may be seeing is that the USD has strengthened too far, too fast. China has announced that it’s market is over priced and even said short selling of stocks is acceptable! Whoa!! I don’t believe it’s a geo-political thing as tensions are no greater than normal over the course of the week. When we look at the USD crosses, we see that every one had a huge week against the USD. I’m looking for a continuation of that theme for at least the next week, but am open to the market showing what it’s going to do.

Another theme I’m often seeing is what I call the ‘weekly trade’. Generally we see a signal within the first two days of the week which then plays out over the next three days or possibly even into the next week. Think about this: if you trade one or two pairs once per week with a 1.5:1 or 2:1 RR target AND you limit your entry signal to pin bars or the 50% candle retrace strategy, your account will grow substantially over the year. This is realistic trading and account growth. If you are unfamiliar with the strategies and methodologies I show in these posts, you may want to purchase the ForexMarketMaster Trading Course.

I would love to see some comments on what readers think of this analysis. Does it help you? Please comment below.

Let’s get started!

EUR/USD D1 Chart

The Euro looks like it’s headed back up for a test of 1.1000. It would not surprise if it breaks that barrier for a period of time. Although there is a very real possibility of euro ranging between 1.0500 and 1.1000 for a couple of months.

eurusd-d1-04192015

GBP/USD D1 Chart

The pound is more like the rest of the USD crosses: big week against the USD and looking for a temporary pullback. It looks like medium sized trading concerns are looking to build into this move up, so look for more gains against the USD.

gbpusd-d1-04192015

AUD/USD D1 Chart

Aussie shows a bear candle at the end of the week, which means a greater chance of pullback into the move higher. This pair will play out much like the other USD crosses. Keep your ears to the macro news events, not CNBC. to determine if the USD weakness sentiment in the market is for real.

audusd-d1-04192015

NZD/USD D1 Chart

Kiwi has had some pretty sweet moves the last few weeks. Good, actionable signals with good returns. Monday looks like an excellent opportunity for the 50% candle retrace strategy for a quick trip down to the overall 50% retrace level. Keep the risk small if you do decide to trade it. It could stop moving lower at 0.7600 or continue to ~0.7550 to pick up more value oriented orders looking for the ride back up. Personally, I favor waiting for the pullback to 0.7600-0.7550 and look for an excellent entry signal in that area.

nzdusd-d1-04192015

USD/CAD D1 Chart

Loonie has given a solid pin bar to end the week on. There are a couple of ways this can go: 1) price jumps away from the go or 2) we see a pullback into Friday’s candle where we price would head north to the 50% pullback zone. That’s where we want to keep an eye out for an entry signal to short the USD.

usdcad-d1-04182015

In The News:

Germany to raise growth forecasts next week: sources (Reuters)

Draghi Says Urgent Need for Greece to Strike Bailout Deal (Bloomberg)

Greece’s Main Creditors Said to Be Unwilling to Allow Euro Exit (Bloomberg)

11 Comments

  • Mukti says:

    Hello Jack,

    Very good analysis and very useful.

    Regards,

    Syed

  • Jack Walsh says:

    Thanks Syed! I’m very happy you’re finding it useful.

  • Hosein says:

    I’ve put my position sell stopp on GBPUSD, because of the pin bar and resistant line.But I was a bit unsure about my analysis of the chart. And now I saw it was almost and learned a new thing of your experience!

    • Jack Walsh says:

      Aloha Hosein,

      That’s terrific! Let’s hope it works out as planned. A sell stop would work with GBP/USD if you used the 50% candle retrace as an entry level. In that way, you may be able to reach 1.5:1 RR or better. Loooking at the chart as of this morning Hawaii time, I see that today’s candle pulled back just enough to trigger a short position, if that was the goal.

  • warshin says:

    hi
    today 22-05-2015 on daily chart of eurusd we have doji candle after bearish candle
    do think it good signal to buy ????
    thanks

  • warshin says:

    Hello my teacher Jack

    I hope but difficulty befor a week i opend an account 500$
    when i make 2000$ i will try to be member with you
    thank you for you help

    • Jack Walsh says:

      Keep on learning and working with price action. It’s really the only way I’ve found, besides having very deep pockets for very large positions, that works week in and week out. Patience is key. Good trading to you.

  • Hosein says:

    Now the price reached my stoploss on GBPUSD and out of trading.
    Well, risk is part of trading and I’m going to see my chart tonight to see how it’s.

  • warshin says:

    hi
    NZDUSD there is a pin bar on daily chart , i will wait to retrace until price reach 50% of pin bar and target
    0.7600
    then i will wait to buy as you mentioned from 0.7600 –0.7550
    with price action signal

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